ATS R1 odds?

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dakerjohn
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ATS R1 odds?

Post by dakerjohn »

I recently got back into this game after playing in the '90s, then (unfortunately!) selling my collection twenty years ago. I'm now trying to collect the rarer sets, mostly because they're the ones that support Ringwraith play, which I have fond memories of enjoying even more than playing a Wizard. (I guess it allows me to indulge my inner evil villain!)

I now have the opportunity to buy a sealed booster box of ATS, even though the asking price is a bit beyond my budget. I can't responsibly justify buying the box and keeping everything, but it might be possible for me to buy the box, then sell the R1's and keep the rest.

I'm aware that not all the R1s are equally valuable, but they're fetching very high prices these days. My question is, how many R1's would I be likely to pull in an ATS box? And is that number fairly reliable, or do boxes vary much in this regard?

Thanks in advance for your advice.
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Khamul the Easterling
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by Khamul the Easterling »

[Calculations have been corrected on 27Sept2020]
There's 36 boosters in a display. Each booster in MEAS has 2 rare cards. -> 72 rare cards per display.

There are 9 R1 on the Rares print sheet. A print sheet has 121 cells. The mean number of R1's I'd expect to draw out of the display would therefore be 5.4

With a bit of bernoulli statistics probabilities are
99% you draw at least 1 R1.
97% you draw at least 2 R1
91% you draw at least 3 R1
79% you draw at least 4 R1
63% you draw at least 5 R1
45% you draw at least 6 R1
29% you draw at least 7 R1
17% you draw at least 8 R1 (not necessarily different ones ;) )
Last edited by Khamul the Easterling on Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
swiftphoenix
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by swiftphoenix »

I believe the booster box I opened last year had five R1’s
tyhjaarpa
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by tyhjaarpa »

I think I have seen some AtS sets without R1 on ebay for reasonable price so I think that might be better deal than try your luck with sealed box. Also time to time ebay has some lots for sale that have AtS so those would be worth a try as well.
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dakerjohn
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by dakerjohn »

Thanks for the advice, everyone. For some reason MECCG product seems to be rising in value quite a bit right now, so I guess I picked a bad—or maybe a very good—time to get back into the game!

Swiftphoenix, did you purchase that box last year, or did you already have it on hand? If you purchased it, do you mind my asking how much you paid?
Kjeld
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by Kjeld »

No! Stop opening sealed product -- it should be in a museum!! But seriously, if you're looking to build your collection for play you're probably much better off trying to buy up already opened collections than going after sealed stuff.
swiftphoenix
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by swiftphoenix »

dakerjohn wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:36 pm Thanks for the advice, everyone. For some reason MECCG product seems to be rising in value quite a bit right now, so I guess I picked a bad—or maybe a very good—time to get back into the game!

Swiftphoenix, did you purchase that box last year, or did you already have it on hand? If you purchased it, do you mind my asking how much you paid?
Purchased last year for $700 USD
dakerjohn
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by dakerjohn »

tyhjaarpa wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:49 pm I think I have seen some AtS sets without R1 on ebay for reasonable price so I think that might be better deal than try your luck with sealed box. Also time to time ebay has some lots for sale that have AtS so those would be worth a try as well.
The only R1-less AtS set on ebay right now has a Buy It Now price of USD 799.95. Have you seen them much cheaper recently? Thanks again for your help and advice.
tyhjaarpa
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by tyhjaarpa »

dakerjohn wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:58 am
tyhjaarpa wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:49 pm I think I have seen some AtS sets without R1 on ebay for reasonable price so I think that might be better deal than try your luck with sealed box. Also time to time ebay has some lots for sale that have AtS so those would be worth a try as well.
The only R1-less AtS set on ebay right now has a Buy It Now price of USD 799.95. Have you seen them much cheaper recently? Thanks again for your help and advice.
That sounds really high for "full set" without R1. I think there was some earlier this year for 300-400$. Also some lots that could have quite a bit of AtS have sold for around 200$. On eBay there have been some people lately that have tried to pump the prices and that R1-less AtS sounds just like that to me.
Monkey drinks masters wine. Do you like drunken monkey?
Llewy
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by Llewy »

Hi, and yes, there was an AtS R1-less set sold this year from the UK, for 250€ (more or less, I don't remember the exact number).
meaglyn
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by meaglyn »

Khamul the Easterling wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:47 pm There are 7 R1 on the Rares print sheet. A print sheet has 121 cells. The mean number of R1's I'd expect to draw out of the display would therefore be 4.2
Isn't it 9?
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Khamul the Easterling
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by Khamul the Easterling »

meaglyn wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:51 am
Khamul the Easterling wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:47 pm There are 7 R1 on the Rares print sheet. A print sheet has 121 cells. The mean number of R1's I'd expect to draw out of the display would therefore be 4.2
Isn't it 9?
So true! Thanks, I did the calculations again. Sorry folks!
tyhjaarpa
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by tyhjaarpa »

Khamul the Easterling wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:05 pm
meaglyn wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:51 am
Khamul the Easterling wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:47 pm There are 7 R1 on the Rares print sheet. A print sheet has 121 cells. The mean number of R1's I'd expect to draw out of the display would therefore be 4.2
Isn't it 9?
So true! Thanks, I did the calculations again. Sorry folks!
Did they have all R1 on each print sheet though? I'm not really familiar with the sheets so made me wonder..
Monkey drinks masters wine. Do you like drunken monkey?
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Khamul the Easterling
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by Khamul the Easterling »

They had print sheets for C/U/R cards. The number indicates how often a card was placed on the print sheet. So, an R2 card does twice appear on the Rares print sheet, a C1 is once on the common sheet etc.
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Re: ATS R1 odds?

Post by CCG Collector »

swiftphoenix wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:15 pm I believe the booster box I opened last year had five R1’s
I got the same results with the one I opened, too.
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