[H-Gandalf v. H] Gondor Moot & Burgling MP

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CDavis7M
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[H-Gandalf v. H] Gondor Moot & Burgling MP

Post by CDavis7M » Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:20 am

Gondor Moot & Burgling MP [Hero Gandalf vs. Hero]

Aragorn and Arwen rally Gondor while Gandalf holds an Ent moot. Hazard men "burgle" items while agents influence allies and factions. If you posses luck exceeding the usual allowance, you may score double Faction and/or Ally MP.

Starting (6)
Aragorn II (9 mind) with Horn of Arnor
Imrahil (6 Mind) with Elf-Stone (2+2 DI)
Arwen (3 Mind) following Imrahil
Mablung (1 mind) Following Imrahil

Wizard (3)
3x Gandalf

Characters (6)
Cirdan (8 mind, sage)
Galadriel (9 mind, sage)
Legolas (6 mind)
Beregond (2 mind, Minas Tirith)
Forlong (1 mind, Minas Tirith)
Ioreth (1 mind, Minas Tirith)

Resources (30 + 10 SB)
Factions:
3x Sentinels of Numenor (Gondor region factions: -2 influence checks, +1 MP)
Return of the King (3 MP)
Choice of Luthien (1 MP)
Men of Lamedon (2 MP, Vale of Erech)
Men of Anfalas (2 MP, Lond Galen)
Men of Lebennin (2MP, Pelargir)
[SB] Woses of the Druadan Forest (3 MP, Druadan Forest)
[SB] Men of Anorien (2MP, Minas Tirith)
[SB] Knights of Dol Amroth (3MP, Dunedain)

Items:
2x Sapling of the White Tree (1/2 MP)
[SB] White Tree (5 MP permanent event)
[SB] Palantir of Minas Tirith (2 MP)

Allies:
Noble Hound (1 MP)
Nenselde the Wingild (2 MP, Dol Amroth)
Skinbark (2 MP, Wellinghall)
[SB] Quickbean (2 MP, Wellinghall)
[SB] Treebeard (2MP, Wellinghall)
[SB] Leaflock (2MP, Wellinghall)

Utility:
2x Gates of Morning
2x Moon (Wilderness to Border-lands, Border-lands to Free-domains)
2x Tempering Friendship (+4 to influence attempt)
3x A Short Rest (draw cards for less regions)
3x Smoke Rings (sideboard)
2x Fireworks
[SB] Fireworks
Houses of Healing (Free-hold becomes haven for healing)
Marvels Told
[SB] Marvels Told
Forewarned is Forearmed (multiple attacks reduced to 1)

Sites (12)
[-me_wi-] Rhudaur - [-me_ha-] Rivendell
[-me_wi-] Wold & Foothills - [-me_ha-] Lorien
[-me_wi-] Fangorn - [-me_fh-] Wellinghall (Ents)
[-me_bl-] Gap of Isen - [-me_rl-] Glittering Caves (Sapling of the White Tree)
[-me_bl-] Gap of Isen - [-me_rl-] Isengard (Sapling of the White Tree)
[-me_fd-] Anorien - [-me_fh-] Minas Tirith (Men of Anorien, Palantir, White Tree)
[-me_fd-] Anorien - [-me_bh-] Druadan Forest (Woses)
[-me_fd-] Lebennin - [-me_fh-] Pelargir (Men of Lebennin)
[-me_fd-] Belfalas - [-me_fh-] Dol Amroth (Nenselde, Knights of Dol Amroth)
[-me_bl-] Lamedon - [-me_bh-] Vale of Erech (Men of Lamedon)
[-me_wi-] Anfalas - [-me_bh-] Lond Galen (Men of Anfalas)
[-me_wi-] Anfalas - [-me_ha-] Edhellond

Resource Notes:
  • This deck hides in Gondor and rallies factions. The starting company moves to Lorien and then to sites in Gondor. When Gandalf is brought into play, he plays Cirdan or Galadriel at Lorien and then moves to Wellinghall to blast Fireworks and play Ents.
  • The important cards to play early are Sentinels of Numenor, Return of the King, Choice of Luthien, and Gandalf. Sentinels of Numenor only affects factions played after it is played. SoN gives 1 extra MP to each faction in the Gondor regions but it also affects the influence check by -2.
  • Aragorn will need to roll a 4 or 5 to play the Dunedain factions. Tempering Friendship (+4 to influence attempt) helps here. Return of the King will give Aragorn +3 DI, which really helps.
  • If Arwen gets Choice of Luthien, she can control Aragorn to free up DI. Once Arwen has choice of Luthien, she can tap to take items/allies/factions playable in Gondor (Anorien, Lebennin, Lamedon, Belfalas, Anfalas) from the deck or discard pile. This means that Gandalf can tap once to bring several cards in from the sideboard (Palantir of Minas Tirith, Knights of Dol Amroth, Men of Anorien, Woses of Druadan Forest). Smoke Rings can be used to pull in The White Tree or Ents from the sideboard.
  • Fireworks can also be used to untap Dol Amroth (to play Knights of DA) or Minas Tirith (to play the Palantir).
  • Once Gandalf comes into play, I start using him to bring in Ents and Fireworks from the SB. Fireworks taps the sage for an extra turn, so having a second sage (Galadriel or Cirdan) lets you play the allies quicker.
  • Gates of Morning and Moon turn the borderlands to free holds and the wilderness to borderholds. With wilderness being so prevalent, Moon enables the Men hazards to become playable.


Hazards (30 + 10 SB)
Agents:
Elwen (Diplomat Elf agent)
Golodhros (Diplomat agent, tap to influence)
Ivic (Diplomat agent)
Anarin (Diplomat Elf agent)

Creatures:
3x Thief (Border-lands)
3x Ambusher (Border-lands)
3x Brigands (Border-lands, Wilderness)
2x Pickpocket

Anti-ally:
Your Welcome is Doubtful (agent influences ally)
[SB] 2x Your Welcome is Doubtful
[SB] 2x Reluctant Final Parting (ally discarded if closer to a different haven from home)

Anti-faction:
Twisted Tales (agent influences faction)
[SB] 2x Twisted Tales
2x Foolish Words (On guard, -4 to influence)
[SB] 2x Muster Disperses (discard faction vs GI)
Good Sense Revolts (agent influences ally or faction, or +4 influence)
[SB] 2x Good Sense Revolts

Utility:
3x An Unexpected Outpost
2x Rank Upon Rank (Men +1 prowess and strikes)
2x No Way Forward (1 less region can be moved)
3x Never Seen Him (agent takes an extra action)


Hazard Notes:
  • Most of the hazards are men that force items to be discarded. The purpose is to just slow down your opponent.
  • As mentioned above, Gates of Morning and Moon turn the borderlands to free holds and the wilderness to borderholds. With wilderness being so prevalent, Moon enables the Men hazards to become playable.
  • No Way Forward (1 less region can be moved) is also used to slow down your opponent. And being limited to 3 regions is usually not a problem because the Gondor regions are close together.
  • The purpose of the agents is to influence away the opponents allies and factions so that you can hopefully get double points, or at least slow down your opponent.
  • Unexpected outpost is used to grab the cards that you need from your SB, depending on the opponents unused GI, and whether they have allies or factions out.
  • The two elf agents, Anarin and Elwen, can move to havens, waiting for allies to show up. However, it can be difficult to wound characters (such that they would need to return to a haven) because thieves and pickpockets don't actually wound characters.
  • All of the agents are Diplomats to benefit from the Your Welcome is Doubtful modifications against allies.
  • I don't influence characters or try to eliminate them because that would increase the opponents unused GI, making it harder to influence allies and factions.
  • Good Sense Revolts can add +4 to another influence attempt by an agent.
Dice Rolling Statistics:
Here are some statistics for likelihoods of influencing/discarding opponents allies and factions. Don't forget that an agent will get a racial modifier if used against the corresponding faction.

Muster Disperses to discard faction:
0 GI - 92%
1 GI - 83%
2 GI - 72%
3 GI - 58%
4 GI - 42%
5 GI - 28%
6 GI - 17%

Adversarial Dice Rolling statistics vs opponent (using agents to influence):
Statistics include "or better." So, you have a 90% chance of losing by 4 or doing better than that. Meaning you have a 10% chance of losing by more than 4. I also rounded the numbers but was not strict in rounding up/down.

Lose by 10 - 99%
Lose by 9 - 99%
Lose by 8 - 99%
Lose by 7 - 99%
Lose by 6 - 97%
Lose by 5 - 94%
Lose by 4 - 90%
Lose by 3 - 84%
Lose by 2 - 76%
Lose by 1 - 66%
At least tie - 56%
Beat by 1 - 44%
Beat by 2 - 33%
Beat by 3 - 24%
Beat by 4 - 16%
Beat by 5 - 10%
Beat by 6 - 5%
Beat by 7 - 3%
Beat by 8 - 1%
Beat by 9 - 0%
Beat by 10 - 0%

Factions - "best case scenario" - Twisted Tales + Good Sense Revolts to Influence Faction (4 DI Agent + Twisted Tales (+6) & Good Sense Revolts (+4)):
This is a "best case scenario" where you use Golodhros, and have TT+GSR to influence at +14. The statistics are based on likelihood of rolling successfully against opponents roll.
0 GI and >7 faction - 97%
1 GI and >7 faction - 94%
2 GI and >7 faction - 90%
3 GI and >7 faction - 84%
4 GI and >7 faction - 76%
5 GI and >7 faction - 66%
6 GI and >7 faction - 55%
So, much better chance than Muster Disperses but it requires so many things to align.

Factions - Reasonable Scenario - Twisted Tales using 3DI agent (+9 total) against >8 faction:

0 GI and >8 faction - 55%
1 GI and >8 faction - 44%
2 GI and >8 faction - 33%
3 GI and >8 faction - 23%
4 GI and >8 faction - 15%
5 GI and >8 faction - 10%
6 GI and >8 faction - 5%
So, must worse than Muster Disperses, and it still requires several things to align.

From this, we can see that you really need Twisted Tales & Good Sense Revolts to have a good chance of influencing away a faction. Unless the agent shares the homesite.

"Worst Case" - Influencing Allies using 2DI agents with Your Welcome is Doubtful (+10 against allies) against 4 mind Allies:
0 GI - 94%
1 GI - 90%
2 GI - 83%
3 GI - 75%
4 GI - 66%
5 GI - 55%
6 GI - 44%

"Best Case" - influencing allies with 4DI agents using Your Welcome is Doubtful (+10) against a 1 mind ally:
0 GI - 100%
1 GI - 100%
2 GI - 100%
3 GI - 99%
4 GI - 99%
5 GI - 99%
6 GI - 97%
So it seems much easier to influence allies compared to factions. And, Reluctant Final Parting can discard mobile allies. Hence why I will try to gather several Ents.


P.S. I am new to playing this game, though I did own the cards back in the day. This deck seems to perform well against a couple of the hero challenge decks that I've tested it against. I would appreciate any comments or suggestions. Also, let me know if the statistics seem off. I created the adversarial stats using a spreadsheet for math instead of using combinatorial statistics.
Last edited by CDavis7M on Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:20 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Theo
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Re: [H-Gandalf v. H] Gondor Moot & Burgling MP

Post by Theo » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:23 pm

On the hazard side, without much of a chance of wounding opponents to force them to havens, along with expecting your companies to interfere with Elwen's movement (and be covering the same general area), I'd consider ditching her for an agent based in the north-west (or maybe north-east?). Elerina, perhaps. Or for certain decks Deallus or Woffung (the bonuses from sharing home-sites are huge against factions).

Your Gates of Morning will kill your No Way Forwards, which need a turn to kick in. I'd consider the search-or-teleport hazards Nobody's Friend and Inner Cunning, which can be invaluable for giving chase ASAP.
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CDavis7M
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Re: [H-Gandalf v. H] Gondor Moot & Burgling MP

Post by CDavis7M » Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:04 am

Theo, thanks for your thoughts.

Yes, No Way Forward does get discarded by Gates, so I included two. I want my opponent to return to a Haven, but I don't have to kill their heros... I think you're onto something with the agent teleports. That way I don't have to rely on my opponent going to a Haven. And this also solves the Elwen issue since I don't need an elf agent.

Great idea. I'll try abandoning No Way Forward for the teleports.

I was also considering detainment hazards instead of the item-thief hazards. But I need to get my hands on those.

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Goblin King
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Re: [H-Gandalf v. H] Gondor Moot & Burgling MP

Post by Goblin King » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:15 pm

I like the statistical analysis that you included.

Vastor Peredhil
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Re: [H-Gandalf v. H] Gondor Moot & Burgling MP

Post by Vastor Peredhil » Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:55 pm

you be toast if opponent loads up with 3 assassins straight in deck, as many players do as your resource portion includes like no counters or canceling cards, except for 1 Forewarned is Forearmed,

maybe leave out Mablung as he adds little to your starting company, only 1 HL ;)

also use Horns, Horns, Horns rather and untapping cards or Token of Godwill to grap Choice of Luthien the key card, also Galadriel is expensive, and you use non of her special cards, if you want to bring in a big MP character later, Glorfindel or Thrain are better choices

just my 2 cents,

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CDavis7M
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Re: [H-Gandalf v. H] Gondor Moot & Burgling MP

Post by CDavis7M » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:08 am

Vastor, thanks for your comments.

Originally I had Dark Quarrels for cancellation, but ended up taking it out. No doubt that 3 assassins would be rough, but that's its purpose. Is it really so common to pack 3 assassins in a deck? Should I do it?

And wow! Token of Good will is a perfect fit for this deck. Great idea. But is there anyway to self-activate it for Choice of Luthien? Tharbad, Hermit's Hill, and many of the MEAS sites have Men automatic attacks. That would do it. Then I swap Imrahil for another diplomat for Arwen to follow: Gimli/Theoden/Cirdan/Galdor and some other disposable minor item. Probably Gimli And I'd need some other minor items if I was going to use additional Tokens.

I have Galadriel in the deck mostly as a second sage to use fireworks, since there is a delay in the caster untapping. So your point is: use a less popular Sage? Thrain looks like a good fit. And Thranduil.


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CDavis7M
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Re: [H-Gandalf v. H] Gondor Moot & Burgling MP

Post by CDavis7M » Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:09 pm

Just an update as I've been playing around with this deck more and more. Basically, the overarching goal is to get a lot of faction points, and if possible, discard your opponent's factions to double your points. The deck also has MPs from White Tree, permanent events, allies, and high mind characters.

The deck has gone through many revisions and used many ideas, some of which end up conflicting with each other while pursuing the ultimate goal. I'm still working on this deck, but my current thoughts are:

-While the high mind Agents are powerful and fun, its much much easier to use numerous low mind agents to cover all of the likely faction sites. The right combinations can cover almost every hero faction-site within 36 mind. Also, the high mind agents are too fiddly as you would need to move them. The other agents are very easy to just play at their home site and let them sit there facedown with no sites pretty much the entire game. The high mind agents are probably better as a one-off hazard in another deck.

-While the item-discarding creatures are also fun, it may not make sense to not-wound your opponent's characters to keep their GI higher. Importantly, this just doesn't slow them down enough. And also, you can obviate high GI using He Will Not Come Down. With the agent home-site advantages, you almost can't lose the influence roll. Plus, deciding this strategy, I can now use Pilfer Anything Unwatched and remove Gates/Moon.

-Getting the Ents into play takes too long in a 2-deck game. This is really an idea for 3+ deck games.

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