Bold Thrust or Swift Strokes - a probabilistic review

[domse]

Hey folks,
at dinner at LURE X, zara, Peregrin and me wondered whether it is better to play Bold Thrust or Swift Strokes. We took out a laptop and did the calculations on place. I redid this now (we were right!) and put it into a nice pdf - which is attached to this post. Hope you enjoy it! It is kind of version 1.0, so if you have any ideas how to improve/extend it, let me now. Same applies if you want it in less/more scientific
domse

[thorondor]

well done!
for version 1.1 can you please take into account the -1 on the body?

[domse]

hmmm.... did you read page 2 and 3?

[marcos]

really nice, but 7 is an average roll, and a lot of times that is what you need, an average roll. So i'll still consider using swift strokes

On the other hand, if you want to kick butts and smash heads, do pack bold thrust x3

[domse]

I dont really think the advantage on the 7 is worth packing it in... its supersmall and with all other required numbers you are better off with Bold Thrust. I do understand if you care about bodychecks...

[marcos]

I dont really think the advantage on the 7 is worth packing it in... its supersmall and with all other required numbers you are better off with Bold Thrust. I do understand if you care about bodychecks...

and considering that this cards will be mostly used by minions, the -1 body is indeed important, since they can be easily discarded with the -1

anyways, i would pack both, just to draw into one of them when i need them

[Bruce]

Hope you enjoy it! It is kind of version 1.0, so if you have any ideas how to improve/extend it, let me now.

Indeed I enjoyed it.
You could add some bar charts, in order to get a more "immediate" visual representation of the differences between playing SS, playing BT, and playing none.

[Alter Tuk]

Hey domse,

you did your homework very well. Mark: 1+ !!

So if you look at the figures that are most relevant, you see that those cards are pretty good balanced. The -1 body makes the advantage that BT obviously has in making higher results almost even. To me that means that the game designers did some math on such issues, too. At least in later expansions. For deck building you should take both cards, in a game sitiuation where you have the choice one could conclude: If you need a high result (> 8 ) but the character is not very relevant if he dies take Bold Thrust. If the character is relevant dont use Bold Thrust for these rolls and for lower results (< 9) obviously use Swift Strokes, too.

edit: Note that with result I mean roll + card effect.

[Brabo]

Cool read!
For the sake of completeness: in a version 1.1 could you add the texts of the cards? For us noobies that would certainly make the comparison easier to follow.